2024 NFL schedule fantasy forecast: Easiest and hardest opponents, players to upgrade, downgrade (2024)

The NFL schedule has been released, and we are one step closer to the start of the 2024 season.

How does this schedule impact the fantasy football landscape? Which players have it the easiest and hardest? Which 14 teams will make the NFL playoffs? How about an early look at the 2025 draft order?

Before going into the analysis, it's important to note that Week 18 is included in the fantasy categories since removing it would only have a minor impact on the findings. Also, the strength of schedule evaluation is not based on final 2023 records, which is often what you'll see in this type of column. There already has been a ton of roster movement this offseason and injured players will return to action, so all of that is factored into each team's 2024 prospects. The evaluation of each roster -- not last year's production -- is what is used to generate the easiest and toughest schedules.

This is your next step in preparing for the 2024 NFL and fantasy football seasons. Let's break it all down.

Easiest fantasy schedule: New Orleans Saints

The Packers topped this list last season and then we watched as Jordan Love enjoyed a breakout season while leading the Green Bay offense to a top -10 finish in total fantasy points.

The Saints actually had the easiest overall schedule last season (more on that later) and follow up with the most favorable fantasy slate in 2024. New Orleans has only three games on the slate that project as harder than average (Browns, Chiefs, Cowboys) but a dozen games against defenses that project among the 10 worst (Panthers twice, Falcons twice, Buccaneers twice, Eagles, Giants, Chargers, Broncos, Commanders, Rams).

We're not interested in Derek Carr in fantasy, but this adds appeal to the likes of Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson and sleepers Kendre Miller and Rashid Shaheed.

The Panthers, Bears, Falcons and Seahawks round out the top five easiest fantasy slates.

Toughest fantasy schedule: Buffalo Bills

Buffalo had a notable offseason, including a housecleaning at wide receiver. Out are Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. In are Curtis Samuel and rookie Keon Coleman. Transition is always a wild card, and a challenging schedule won't help. Headlined by a tough AFC East, Buffalo's schedule includes seven matchups against projected top-10 defenses. That slate includes the Jets (twice), Dolphins (twice), Ravens, 49ers and Jaguars. There are only three matchups against the 12 "easiest" defenses (Rams, Titans, Cardinals) on their slate.

Buffalo has Josh Allen, so this offense is relatively matchup-proof, but this throws a little cold water on the likes of Samuel, Coleman, Dalton Kincaid and James Cook. As for Allen, his elite rushing ability means we shouldn't be too worried.

The Texans (who traded for Diggs) have generated a ton of hype this offseason, but they'll be dealing with the second-hardest projected fantasy schedule. The Browns, Patriots and Rams round out the top five.

Positional upgrades and downgrades

Though we don't want to get too caught up in strength of schedule based on 2023 results, there is some correlation between fantasy points allowed by position and projected fantasy strength of schedule (based on 2024 rosters). The chart below shows each offense's strength of schedule based on what their 2024 opponents allowed last season. For example, based on 2023 results, the Broncos are set to face the fourth-easiest schedule for running backs but the hardest for wide receivers. (Green = easy; Red = hard.)

Here are some upgrades and downgrades based solely on this chart, though you'll notice some correlation with the previous analysis:

Upgrades

QB: Caleb Williams, Jordan Love
RB: Tyjae Spears, Tony Pollard, De'Von Achane, Raheem Mostert
WR: Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze
TE: T.J. Hockenson, Chigoziem Okonkwo

Downgrades

QB: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa
RB: Ezekiel Elliott, Josh Jacobs
WR: Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims Jr., Ladd McConkey, DJ Chark Jr., Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer
TE: Mike Gesicki, Jonnu Smith

All win totals provided by ESPN BET.

Easiest overall schedule: Atlanta Falcons (win total: 9.5)

The Saints and Falcons were the top two in this category last season, and the two NFC South teams did, in fact, end up tied with the league's easiest slate by season's end.

Based on the current state, we should expect a repeat in 2024. Atlanta has a few tough opponents on the schedule (Chiefs, Cowboys, Eagles), but that's more than offset by pedestrian divisional opposition, as well as matchups with the Giants, Broncos, Commanders, Raiders and Vikings. All five of those teams will start either a rookie QB or an unintimidating veteran.

This is excellent news as it pertains to the Falcons' chances of a division title. Atlanta's defense is very shaky on paper, but a new-look offense led by Kirk Cousins and a strong supporting cast, coupled with the league's lightest schedule, has the Falcons in a very good spot.

The Chargers have the second-easiest projected schedule (easiest in the AFC), and they're followed by the Panthers, Saints and Eagles.

Toughest schedule: New England Patriots (win total: 4.5)

Welcome to the NFL, Drake Maye. The tough division is a major culprit here, as the Patriots will play six of their 17 games against the Jets, Dolphins and Bills. They also have matchups against the 49ers, Bengals and Texans (the former two are on the road). There are a couple light matchups (the Titans and Cardinals jump out), but all others project as average or tougher.

New England is in transition not only at quarterback with third-overall pick in Maye, but also at head coach, with Bill Belichick out and Jerod Mayo in. The Patriots' chances of a big rebound campaign in 2024 appear to be a long shot.

The aforementioned Bills have the second-hardest projected schedule, and they're followed by the Steelers, Texans and Cardinals.

Projected AFC playoff seeds

All playoff odds provided by ESPN BET..

1. Chiefs (-450); 2. Jets (-140); 3. Ravens (-320); 4. Texans (-160); 5. Bengals (-220); 6. Browns (+160); 7. Dolphins (-170)

Last season's 11-6 record marked the fewest regular-season wins by a Chiefs team since Patrick Mahomes took over at quarterback, which shows just how elite this franchise has been. Still stocked with talent on both sides of the ball, including a better WR room, Andy Reid's squad remains the favorite in the AFC. With a loaded defense, healthy Aaron Rodgers and improved offensive supporting cast, the Jets own one of the league's best rosters. The AFC North is wide open, with the Ravens, Bengals and Browns all arguably sporting top-10 rosters. The defending division champion Ravens get the nod here, but a healthy Joe Burrow or a rebound from Deshaun Watson could change things quickly. The Texans had a busy offseason and added plenty of support for second-year QB C.J. Stroud. They're legitimate AFC South favorites. Miami has the explosive offense, but some defensive turnover/injuries and a recent string of late-season fades is concerning.

Projected NFC playoff seeds

1. 49ers (-450); 2. Cowboys (-240); 3. Lions (-240); 4. Falcons (-320); 5. Eagles (-190); 6. Bears (-105); 7. Packers (-200)

The defending NFC champion 49ers enter 2024 with top-five units on both sides of the ball and are without a major area of concern across the roster. They're positioned well for a repeat. Dallas' offensive line is a big red flag, but a top-five defense and formidable passing game make the Cowboys the NFC East favorite. Detroit already had the offense, but the defense is much improved, so perhaps this is the year they get over the top and take the NFC. Aforementioned Atlanta is a step behind our first three division winners, but nonetheless the favorite in the South. The Eagles' defense still has major concern areas that could again prove detrimental, but the offense remains elite, even without Jason Kelce. Chicago has set Caleb Williams up with an elite supporting cast, and don't overlook what is an above-average defense on paper. The Packers are above average on both sides of the ball, and a tougher schedule is the only reason they're seeded behind Chicago here. NFC North matchups will be must-see TV this season.

Projected 2025 NFL draft top five

1. Giants; 2. Broncos; 3. Titans; 4. Cardinals; 5. Patriots

The Giants have won six or fewer games in six of the past seven seasons, and what is arguably the league's shakiest roster suggests that they will make it seven of eight in 2024. Daniel Jones will need to stay healthy and play much better, or New York will be drafting his replacement early in the 2025 draft. Denver checks in the bottom five on both sides of the ball and will need to hit the jackpot with rookie QB Bo Nix to get out of the basem*nt in the AFC. The rebuilding Titans are in a similar spot, suspect on both sides of the ball and in need of a big leap from young QB Will Levis. Arizona has the Kyler Murray-to-Marvin Harrison Jr. connection, but problems on the offensive line, as well as the league's shakiest defense on paper, are reasons for major concern. The aforementioned Patriots have a solid defense, but a tough schedule, as well as a rookie head coach and quarterback (with a shaky supporting cast), suggests they're in for a rebuilding year.