ESPN Fantasy
Nov 3, 2023, 04:46 PM
The ESPN+ Cheat Sheet is your one-stop shop for Week 9 fantasy football advice. We've curated all of our best start/sit advice from this week, including Mike Clay's Playbook and Shadow Report, Matt Bowen's Film Room, Tristan H. co*ckcroft's Matchups Map, Liz Loza's Facts vs. Feelings and Eric Karabell's Fantasy Hot Seat. Don't have time to read it all? That's why cheat sheets were invented in the first place! Catch up on a week's worth of reading in mere minutes, see which players are on the injury report and then set your lineup with confidence.
Lines by ESPN BET. Injury aggregation powered by Rotowire.
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs -1.5
Frankfurt Stadium, Frankfurt, Germany
Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET
Over/under total: 50.5 (Highest)
FPI favorite: Chiefs by 0.3 (51% to win outright)
Dolphins injury watch: WR Braxton Berrios: Q; TE Durham Smythe: Q
Chiefs injury watch: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: O
Best of the Week
The Playbook: Mike Clay notes that after seeing Rashee Rice lead his team in routes run in Week 8, he is the only Chiefs wideout worth a fantasy look for Week 9.
Shadow report: "Matchup-proof" Tyreek Hill is expected to have another stellar day, according to Clay, despite the Chiefs' pass defense.
Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons -3.5
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Over/under total: 37.5 (12th highest)
FPI favorite: Falcons by 0.3 (51% to win outright)
Falcons injury watch: WR Drake London: O
Best of the Week
Film Room: Matt Bowen is concerned about a committee backfield, making Alexander Mattison a flex play, with Cam Akers getting more work.
The Playbook: Mike Clay is not high on Mattison, who has only two touchdowns on the season -- both receiving.
Hot seat: Eric Karabell believes that the Falcons' QB change to Taylor Heinicke could pay off for Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith.
Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns -10
Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Over/under total: 38.5 (10th highest)
FPI favorite: Browns by 6.8 (69.4% to win outright)
Cardinals injury watch: WR Michael Wilson: Q; RB Emari Demercado: O; QB Kyler Murray: O; WR Greg Dortch: Q
Browns injury watch: WR David Bell: O
Best of the Week
Film Room: Matt Bowen has Kareem Hunt in the flex conversation against the Cards, who have allowed 25.8 PPG to running backs.
Facts vs. Feelings: Liz Loza likes the David Njoku-PJ Walker connection and will ride it into this game, ranking Njoku in her top 10 at tight end.
The Playbook: Mike Clay likes Trey McBride's chances at success going forward, but perhaps not in Week 9, given Arizona's QB situation and a poor matchup with Cleveland.
Shadow report: Clay is upgrading expectations for Amari Cooper and Marquise Goodwin.
Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers -3
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Over/under total: 38.5 (10th highest)
FPI favorite: Rams by 2.9 (58.7% to win outright)
Rams injury watch: WR Puka Nacua: Q; QB Matthew Stafford: Q; QB Stetson Bennett: O
Packers injury watch: none to report
Best of the Week
The Playbook: Mike Clay is optimistic on Christian Watson's future as a viable fantasy receiver, thanks to his strong end zone usage.
Hot seat: A matchup with the struggling Rams pass defense could be what Jordan Love and Watson need to get back on track, according to Eric Karabell's observations.
Facts vs. Feelings: For this week, however, Liz Loza has Watson as a low-end flex play until Love can demonstrate a consistent deep ball. She's also willing to cut Cooper Kupp some slack for back-to-back poor weeks, noting that he's still being targeted a ton and the bye week is around the corner. Hold, don't sell.
Matchup Map: Tristan H. co*ckcroft has Darrell Henderson Jr. playing well even if the Packers put eight men in the box against him this week. Conversely, he does not see Aaron Jones breaking out in this game against a D that stifled Tony Pollard last week.
Washington Commanders @ New England Patriots -2.5
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Over/under total: 40.5 (seventh highest)
FPI favorite: Patriots by 2.1 (56.3% to win outright)
Commanders injury watch: WR Curtis Samuel: O
Patriots injury watch: WR Tyquan Thornton: Q; WR DeVante Parker: O; TE Pharaoh Brown: Q
Best of the Week
The Playbook: Mike Clay expects Demario Douglas to become the Patriots' top WR option moving forward now that Kendrick Bourne is out for the season.
Matchup Map: Tristan H. co*ckcroft points out that this is a quality matchup for Douglas to show what he can do.
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints -8
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Over/under total: 41.5 (sixth highest)
FPI favorite: Saints by 6.1 (67.4% to win outright)
Bears injury watch: QB Justin Fields: D
Saints injury watch: RB Kendre Miller: Q
Best of the Week
Film Room: Matt Bowen has dropped DJ Moore to lower-tier WR2 status, as the explosive plays haven't been there with Tyson Bagent under center.
Film Room: Bowen calls Michael Thomas a "solid flex" because of his consistent target volume.
The Playbook: Mike Clay warns against trusting Rashid Shaheed too much after a career-best 153 yards in Week 8, noting that he was targeted only three times in the game and actually saw less time on the field than Lynn Bowden Jr.
Shadow report: Clay is downgrading Moore because of expected coverage from the Saints' Marshon Lattimore.
Matchup Map: Tristan H. co*ckcroft says the numbers agree that the Saints' D has been good at limiting opposing WR1s even though the matchup is decent for the team's other wide receivers.
Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens -6
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Over/under total: 44.5 (fourth highest)
FPI favorite: Ravens by 6.9 (69.6% to win outright)
Seahawks injury watch: none to report
Ravens injury watch: none to report
Best of the Week
The Playbook: Even with all the upheaval at the QB position around the league, Mike Clay won't touch Geno Smith against the stingy Ravens defense.
Matchup Map: Tristan H. co*ckcroft concurs, pointing out that the Ravens defense has given up the fewest points per passing attempt to opposing QBs this season.
Facts vs. Feelings: Liz Loza still thinks Gus Edwards is a TD-dependent matchup play, but this is actually one of those matchups in which to play him as the Seahawks have given up six rushing scores so far, seventh most in the league.
Shadow report: Mike Clay is lowering expectations for Ravens receivers against the Seahawks and avoiding Metcalf and Lockett in DFS lineups.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans -3
NRG Stadium, Houston
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Over/under total: 39.5 (ninth highest)
FPI favorite: Texans by 0.2 (50.7% to win outright)
Buccaneers injury watch: none to report
Texans injury watch: TE Brevin Jordan: O; WR Robert Woods: O; RB Dameon Pierce: O
Best of the Week
Film Room: Matt Bowen considers Pierce a risky play as a deeper-league flex, and has him ranked behind teammate Devin Singletary.
The Playbook: Until either Pierce or Singletary emerges as a true No. 1 RB in Houston, Mike Clay will be avoiding both in fantasy.
Hot seat: Eric Karabell has a low outlook for Nico Collins, due to inconsistent play recently by QB C.J. Stroud.
Matchup Map: Tristan H. co*ckcroft doesn't like the TD-dependent Dalton Schultz this week as the Buccaneers have been good about shutting down opposing TEs in the red zone.
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 @ Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Over/under total: 43.5 (fifth highest)
FPI favorite: Colts by 3.3 (59.6% to win outright)
Colts injury watch: WR Josh Downs: Q
Panthers injury watch: WR Laviska Shenault Jr.: O; WR DJ Chark Jr.: Q
Best of the Week
Facts vs. Feelings: Liz Loza is out on Miles Sanders, who is currently offering neither volume nor efficiency and is losing ground to Chuba Hubbard on the team RB depth chart.
The Playbook: Mike Clay prefers Hubbard to Sanders in the Panthers' backfield, based on both opportunity and performance.
New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders -2
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Over/under total: 37.5 (12th highest)
FPI favorite: Giants by 3 (58.8% to win outright)
Giants injury watch: QB Tyrod Taylor: O; TE Darren Waller: O
Raiders injury watch: none to report
Best of the Week
Shadow report: Mike Clay is upgrading Jakobi Meyers against the Giants' struggling secondary.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles -3
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Over/under total: 46.5 (third highest)
FPI favorite: Eagles by 0 (50.1% to win outright)
Cowboys injury watch: none to report
Eagles injury watch: RB Boston Scott: O; TE Grant Calcaterra: O
Best of the Week
Matchup Map: Tristan H. co*ckcroft calls out Dak Prescott being in the softest portion of his schedule and sees the Cowboys passing game being key to this game.
Shadow report: Mike Clay is upgrading CeeDee Lamb against the Eagles' patchwork secondary, but is less bullish on other Cowboys receivers.
Shadow report: Clay will slightly downgrade A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith against the tough Cowboys secondary.
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
Over/under total: 50.5 (Highest)
FPI favorite: Bills by 5.9 (67% to win outright)
Bills injury watch: none to report
Bengals injury watch: RB Joe Mixon: Q
Best of the Week
Facts vs. Feelings: Liz Loza says Joe Burrow is back, and has been for a few weeks now. Lock him in as a top-10 QB in this matchup. She then lays out the case that Gabe Davis is transforming from a boom-bust player to a higher-floor receiver you can deploy even in matchups like this one, where you might fear his ceiling is limited.
Film Room: Matt Bowen considers Tee Higgins an upside WR3/flex, with the Bills focused on slowing down Ja'Marr Chase.
The Playbook: Mike Clay thinks Higgins has a long way to go before we can trust him to provide much more than WR3/flex value on a weekly basis, but still wishes he were playing on an every-down basis.
Matchup Map: Tristan H. co*ckcroft likes the matchup for Dalton Kincaid, as the Bengals have ceded the most points per target in the league to opposing tight ends this season.
Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 @ New York Jets
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
Over/under total: 40.5 (seventh highest)
FPI favorite: Chargers by 3.6 (60.6% to win outright)
Chargers injury watch: WR Joshua Palmer: Q
Jets injury watch: WR Xavier Gipson: Q
Best of the Week
Shadow report: Downgrade Chargers receivers, other than Keenan Allen, against the stout Jets coverage.
The Playbook: If Gerald Everett sits again in Week 9, Mike Clay thinks Donald Parham Jr. is a solid TE1 option, especially given that he leads all tight ends with six end zone targets.
