Sunday has the featured action locking at 1:35 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Chris Sale and Bryan Woo as the key arms to build around, while the Mariners and Red Sox are the teams to target for stacks.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 26
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Chris Sale (ATL at PIT)
Braves at Pirates- 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
$10,500 at DraftKings
$11,000 at FanDuel
$62 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool is impressed with LHP Chris Sale, who has allowed zero runs in his last three starts and just three in his last 33 innings. The salary algorithms have all taken note of this as well, particularly on Yahoo, where Sale has broken through the $60 barrier, which is territory typically left for apex aces.
The projected Pittsburgh lineup has a 28.1% strikeout rate against southpaws over the last season and change, but it is highly concentrated with four hitters. Oneil Cruz, Jared Triolo, Nick Gonzales and catcher Joey Bart each have struck out 30% or more of the time against lefties. The top half of the order is all below league average, with Andrew McCutchen and Connor Joe each bringing a double-digit walk rate, but that should not dissuade anyone from rolling with Sale this afternoon. FanDuel and Yahoo of course each have the Coors Field Extravaganza on their respective featured slates, while DraftKings is eschewing the 3:10 p.m. ET start time for a consolidated grouping of games.
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Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Bryan Woo (SEA at WSH)
Mariners at Nationals – 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
$8,600 at DraftKings
$8,700 at FanDuel
$46 at Yahoo
While RHP Bryan Woo has been terrific, allowing just one run in his three starts, he does have some risk. Though he has ramped up from 4.1 to 5.1 and finally 6.0 innings in his starts, he has thrown just 62, 79 and 77 pitches. It is likely folly to think he will throw more than 80 to 85 pitches today and anything beyond the fifth inning would be a bonus.
Woo was dealing with elbow soreness, which kept him out for the first portion of the season. In his first start, he also experienced forearm tightness, so manager Scott Servais has indicated that there is no reason to push a heavy workload on the superlative sophom*ore hurler. Woo was a reliever in college, starting just six games across three seasons at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo. Seattle selected him in the sixth-round of the 2021 MLB Draft, enticed by his intriguing pitch mix, though understanding consistency and control were weaknesses. The 24-year-old has a fastball that sits in the 95 mph range with good movement, but his secondary pitches are still under development. Today will be only his 22nd start in The Show, but at least it is a desirable matchup.
Washington does not have a lot of strikeouts, though Woo can conjure up enough on his own. The best part about facing the Nationals is the complete lack of power against right-handed pitching. CJ Abrams, Eddie Rosario and Joey Gallo are the only players with a .140 ISO or higher that are expected to be in the lineup, which bodes well for Woo.
Late Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Ronel Blanco (HOU at OAK)
Astros at Athletics – 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
$9,500 at DraftKings
$9,800 at FanDuel
$44 at Yahoo
The last time we saw RHP Ronel Blanco was on May 14, when he was ejected after the third inning for “foreign substances” on his glove, in a matchup against Oakland. This was an unfortunate development as it takes away some of the luster of his no-hitter against Toronto in his season debut.
Prior to that escapade, it looked like Blanco was going to be a late-blooming breakout candidate in his age-31 season. In his seven full starts, he allowed a grand total of 11 runs, with a 2.23 ERA. Blanco clawed his way up the MiLB ranks, starting as a 22-year-old in rookie ball, back in 2016. He had a cup of coffee in 2022, getting in 6.1 innings across seven games as a reliever before seeing 52 innings last year between the bullpen and seven spot starts. He was the 30th-ranked prospect for Houston and expected to hang around for a couple seasons in the bullpen.
Over the last 15 games, Oakland has scored more than four runs three times, four runs twice and two or fewer six times. This has led to a 4-11 record in this stretch and is why we are attacking this team on a regular basis with opposing pitchers. The A’s have 66th home runs, which is the fourth most in the league, but they have the seventh-fewest runs, the fifth-fewest stolen bases (26) and the second-most strikeouts (524).
There is some pop in the lineup, with Brent Rooker, JJ Bleday, Abraham Toro, Shea Langeliers and Seth Brown all being above average. However, the lack of baserunners makes most of the extra-base hits meaningless.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Seattle Mariners
Mariners at Nationals – 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Patrick Corbin
DK Top Stack %: 14.6%
FD Top Stack %: 11.2%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool agrees that the Mariners will be overleveraged across the sites, though that is not a bad thing by any stretch. The team has one of the best value ratings while also projecting as the most likely top scoring stack on DraftKings and the second-highest stack on FanDuel, behind the Philadelphia Phillies in Coors Field.
It does feel like the Mariners left their offense in Seattle, scoring more than three runs only three times during the first nine games of this road trip. Heck, the team has just two runs in the last three games! Of course between the warm weather and matchup against LHP Patrick Corbin, there are a lot of positives in play. One final negative, while Seattle ranks ninth with 59 home runs, the team is last with 59 doubles.
Corbin has been the bringer of home runs for years, but to his credit he has allowed just seven longballs in his 10 starts. However, the Twins got to him for a trio of taters on Tuesday, so perhaps the damn is about to break. Washington fans can be thankful that this is the final season of Corbin’s monstrous six-year, $140 million dollar contract, but they can at least be comforted in knowing he helped win the 2019 World Series. Seattle has made the postseason only once in the last 22 years, and the M’s are the only team that has never appeared in a World Series.
Back to today, look to Dylan Moore, Mitch Garver, Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez as the foundational pieces for full stacks. Why is Rodriguez listed last? Well partially because he is the best of the bunch, but also because he has been dropped down the order to sixth, in an effort to take off some of the pressure as he has only three home runs and 15 RBI in 210 at bats.
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Main Slate Target: Boston Red Sox
Red Sox vs. Brewers – 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Tobias Myers
DK Top Stack %: 11.4%
FD Top Stack %: 9.6%
Tyler O’Neill is not in the lineup today, but that means Dominic Smith is and Garrett Cooper has moved up to the three-hole, in front of Rafael Devers. Catcher Reese McGuire, leadoff man Jarren Duran and versatile Wilyer Abreu are the other viable stacking pieces.
Now for the good part, RHP Tobias Myers was the 30th-ranked prospect in the Milwaukee system and he was expected to matriculate to the big leagues last year. Spoiler alert, he did not. In a wild confluence of events, the now 25-year-old saw action at the Triple-A level for Tampa Bay, Cleveland, San Francisco and the Chicago White Sox, along with the Brewers over the last three seasons. He was drafted out of high school back in 2016 by the Baltimore Orioles in the sixth round. Congratulations to him for finally making it to The Show, but it is not likely to be a long-term gig.
Late Slate Target: Cleveland Guardians
Guardians at Angels – 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Reid Detmers
DK Top Stack %: 15.3%
FD Top Stack %: 20.0%
It would seem that LHP Reid Detmers is broken right now, having gone from a desirable DFS option, to one that can be exploited with stacks. The season started off on a strong note, with the soon-to-be 25-year-old allowing just four earned runs in his first four starts. His last two starts in April were middling at best, and then the wheels came off the wagon in May.
Over his last four appearances, Detmers has allowed 24 runs in 19.2 innings and while the 22 strikeouts are still promising, the seven home runs are a concern. In this stretch he has suffered a 10.53 ERA, 6.89 FIP and allowed a .329/.390/.635 triple-slash line, effectively making opposing batters look like All-Stars.
Cleveland has a top-heavy lineup, but if the back half can do anything to avoid a three-up, three-down first time through the order, the core should see a worn-down Detmers the second time around. Tyler Freeman, David Fry and Jose Ramirez will all have the platoon advantage, which makes them the trio to target. Josh Naylor has a .364 wOBA and .216 ISO in his last 200 same-handed matchups, while Detmers has allowed a .351 wOBA and .241 ISO this season to fellow lefties. Andres Gimenez can be added for a full stack if he is near the top of the order. The Halos have a well-rested bullpen, but it is a far from daunting crew.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
This is not a sexy wager, but it is an excellent foundational piece for parlays. Kris Bryant is expected to be in the lineup today against LHP Ranger Suarez and the under on his 1.5 total bases prop is appealing.
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Bryant does project for right around 1.5 total bases, but the former top-25 hitter has managed to appear in just 140 games in his two-plus seasons with the Rockies. This year he has a dreadful .175/.316/.254 triple-slash line, which is hard to accomplish with a higher on-base than slugging percentage. Suarez has been amazing this season, leading the league with a 9-0 record and a 0.79 WHIP while ranking second with a 1.36 ERA. He has allowed just 12 extra-base hits in his 66.0 innings and Bryant does not profile well against him.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Sunday, May 26
Today there is quite a bit of potential precipitation throughout the Midwest, with Cincinnati already moving up their game by several hours, which had the DFS sites pulling it from the featured slate. Chicago, Minnesota and St. Louis all have challenges, particularly in The Lou. Fortunately for DFS gamers, that is the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball matchup. Finally, Minnesota and Boston are looking at some late-afternoon rain, so be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
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