Welcome back to another edition of Hawks Tankathon. If you missed our first edition last month, you can check it out here.
This time, we’re bringing in The Athletic’s draft guru, Sam Vecenie, to go through some draft lottery simulations and who the Hawks might pick at each of the spots.
The Hawks currently have a 12.5 percent chance of winning the draft lottery with the fourth-worst record in the NBA and a 48.1 percent chance of a top-four pick. The lowest they can fall in the draft is eighth. I simulated the lottery 100 times on Tankathon to see the results, and this is how it turned out for the Hawks.
I just simulated the draft lottery 100 times on Tankathon because I don't have much to do. Hawks have a 12.5 % chance for the No. 1 overall pick. These were the results for the Hawks:
1: 11 times
2: 18
3: 13
4: 7
5: 9
6: 29
7: 12
8: 1— Chris Kirschner (@ChrisKirschner) March 31, 2020
What that confirms, essentially, is Tankathon is working appropriately. The one draft slot that is likeliest is No. 6 with a 25.7 percent chance of the Hawks landing there on lottery night.
With that said, Vecenie will make his selections for how our simulations turned out, and we’ll talk about his picks.
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Let’s go.
Simulation 1
- Minnesota: Anthony Edwards
- Cleveland: James Wiseman
- New Orleans: Deni Avdija
- Detroit: LaMelo Ball
- Golden State: Obi Toppin
- Atlanta: Isaac Okoro
Kirschner: I’ve been wanting to ask you about Okoro since I saw him projected to the Hawks in your last mock draft. The Hawks need more help on the wing, for sure. But they also need more shooting. They ranked dead last in the NBA in 3-point shooting, and I feel like one of the keys for this team long term is surrounding Trae Young with high-level shooters. Okoro shot 29 percent from 3 at Auburn this season. So why do you feel like he would be the choice for the Hawks?
Vecenie: I’m a little bit less concerned about the long-term shooting need on the wing for the Hawks than it seems you are. That team-wide percentage is being brought down by guys who are not long-term pieces on this roster. Jabari Parker shot 27 percent from 3 in his time in Atlanta. Dewayne Dedmon is at 22 percent so far. Jeff Teague is at 33 percent, and Allen Crabbe was at 32. Vince Carter is down at 30 percent, and DeAndre’ Bembry only at 23.1 percent.
On the other hand, the long-term pieces on the perimeter can shoot. Young is a monster, of course. Kevin Huerter is a terrific shooter, obviously. I’m a pretty big believer in Cam Reddish’s touch as a jump-shooter long-term even though he only hit 33 percent from 3 as a rookie. I’d expect Reddish to be up around the 38 percent mark pretty consistently throughout his career. And then, at least as a catch-and-shoot threat, I also believe in De’Andre Hunter, who hit nearly 36 percent as a rookie on more than 300 attempts. In general, the long-term track record on guys who hit at that rate on that number of attempts as a rookie is quite strong.
Rather than the shooting, I’m actually a bit more worried about surrounding Young and Huerter with defenders and more athleticism, which is what Okoro absolutely brings to the table. Also, Reddish, Hunter and Huerter struggle to finish at the rim. Okoro is an above-the-rim finisher in a way that would really help Young find targets for lobs. On some level, Okoro does need to shoot it at a reasonable level to be an effective NBA player. I’m somewhat skeptical of that happening due to the touch and mechanics he’s displayed so far, which is why I have him a bit lower on my board than what most NBA evaluators do. He’s actually ranked below Florida State’s Devin Vassell for me, who fits the criteria of shooter and defender well. I’d probably take him over Okoro. But for executives I’ve spoken with, they’re more interested in Okoro right now and consider him the top true wing in this class. If we’re trying to project what the Hawks would reasonably be expected to do, my feedback across the league is Okoro over Vassell. We’ll see how that changes as we get closer to the draft — whenever that day actually comes.
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And I do think the key for Atlanta in this draft is prioritizing more answers in between the lead guard and center spots. They’re set with Young. Capela gives them a good starting center who is under contract for a while. They should just keep filling out with guys who can play in-between those two. Okoro might not tick all the boxes, but he ticks important ones and has an upside for a team still on an upward trajectory in its growth process.
Simulation 2
- Minnesota: Anthony Edwards
- Atlanta: Deni Avdija
Kirschner: If I was making a personal big board for the Hawks in which players should be on the top of their big board, it would be Edwards and Avdija. With this pick, the Hawks definitely could use more help at the combo forward position, which is what they would get from Avdija. For those who are unfamiliar with the international prospect, how would you see him fitting into the Hawks’ system?
Vecenie: I think he’d be an awesome complement to what Reddish and Hunter bring to the table at the forward positions.
Later on in the season (let’s call it his last 15 games or so), I thought Reddish really started to blossom into a nice secondary playmaker for Atlanta, particularly when taking advantage of attacking heavy closeouts. The passing skills that he showed at lower levels haven’t really come along, but he started to get more comfortable in regard to getting to his spots. It also helped that he shot better than 40 percent from 3 in those games, but for the most part, it just looked like things started to slow down a bit for him. I also thought he was pretty underrated on defense this year for a young wing. He’s going to be a nice advantage scorer and floor-spacer who plays on both ends, in my opinion. Hunter remains a strong defender, and the shooting helped a lot. But he’s definitely a bit more limited on offense.
Avdija fits here well because he brings the ballhandling and point-forward abilities that I don’t really see either of Hunter or Reddish as likely to bring right now. It’s a different dimension as a secondary initiator in the frontcourt if Avdija hits. The Israeli forward is a good athlete who is strong in ball-screen actions and can really make plays as a passer and scorer. The jump shot is absolutely something worth tracking moving forward, as he hits at a strong percentage from 3, but typically has not quite hit free throws at a commensurate rate.
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The key here is whether he’ll bring enough defensive acumen. But if you believe in all of Hunter, Reddish and Capela on defense, I think having Avdija around to make things happen on offense is pretty useful.
Simulation 3
- Atlanta: Anthony Edwards
Kirschner: This pick makes the most sense if the Hawks ended up winning the lottery. He’s from Atlanta, he played in college at Georgia, and he shares the same agent (Omar Wilkes from Octagon) as Young and Reddish, who are obviously two important players for the team’s future.
This is a two-part question: 1) Right now, Huerter is the team’s starter at shooting guard. I like Huerter’s game, but I don’t know if he is an ideal fit next to Young in the backcourt mainly because his defense is a big question mark right now. What do you think of Huerter’s long-term outlook, and do you feel like he’s destined for a different role with the Hawks or elsewhere? And then, 2) The Hawks need a secondary playmaker who can ease some of the pressure off Young offensively. Ideally, how would you use Edwards if you were head coach Lloyd Pierce?
Vecenie: Yeah, I think Huerter has a great future ahead of him, but I obviously do worry about the perimeter defense next to Young. And while Huerter is the kind of terrific shooter the team should be looking for to help space the floor for Young, I’m not sure that he’s so good as to not look for potential upgrades over him. Or, in the case of Edwards, a potential complement to this backcourt. Remember, not everyone has to play together all the time. Even if Huerter plays 30 minutes, that’s still at least 18 minutes when he’s not on the floor.
In the case of Edwards, what I like best is that he solves a few problems. In lineups with Young, the Hawks could use another option to make plays happen on the second side. Huerter is an underrated ballhandler in pick-and-roll but isn’t quite explosive enough to get all the way to the basket and finish. I also think both Huerter and Edwards are big enough to play together on the floor at the same time. Beyond that, the Hawks really struggle to get easy baskets at the rim because none of their young core is particularly good at it. Edwards, on the other hand, is a monstrously explosive athlete who can drive all the way to the rim due to his first step, and he can finish at a high level. He can get penetration and buckets in a way that the Hawks could use.
And on top of it, he can act as a primary ballhandler at times. One issue the Hawks have struggled with is what happens in the minutes when Young leaves the floor, and it’s in large part due to the lack of creative forces on the floor in those scenarios. Edwards would be able to stay on the floor in those minutes without Young and really help the second unit’s offense, which plummeted to disastrous levels. The Hawks had a 98.5 offensive rating in the minutes without Young on the floor, a number that would be worst in the NBA by nearly seven points per 100 possessions. Edwards’ explosive scoring ability, where he posted 19 points per game as an 18-year-old freshman in the SEC, would really help them.
Simulation 4
- Cleveland: Anthony Edwards
- Phoenix: LaMelo Ball
- Chicago: Obi Toppin
- New York: Deni Avdija
- Golden State: James Wiseman
- Minnesota: Isaac Okoro
- Atlanta: Tyrese Haliburton
Kirschner: So the Hawks’ backup point guard situation this season was a nightmare. I’m still not sure why they went into the season thinking Evan Turner was the answer. That quickly didn’t work out. They then traded for Teague, who struggled for most of his time back with the Hawks — he did end up stabilizing the second unit somewhat. Still, the Hawks were outscored by 13.3 points per 100 possessions when Young sat, according to Cleaning The Glass. All of that is to say, the Hawks still need to figure out their problem when Young sits. Is Haliburton the kind of player who could step in and give the Hawks 15ish minutes without everything falling apart? Can he also play with Young in the backcourt?
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Vecenie: Yeah, we’ve talked a lot about the Hawks’ ancillary players not being good enough in this story, particularly at the backup guard spot. Haliburton is a different type of guard from Young, but he’d be an immediate, substantial upgrade over everything the Hawks have if Teague doesn’t re-sign. He easily would be able to handle those 15 minutes per game.
But the real reason Haliburton would be useful as a pick here is because of the flexibility to play him both with or without Young. In my opinion, Halliburton’s best minutes are likely to come as a second-side ballhandler who acts in pick-and-roll and makes rapid decisions to help his teammates out. Defensively, he has some issues on the ball but is really smart in regard to rotations and playmaking ability when on the weak side. The reason why I don’t love him as a first-unit point guard has to do with the athleticism and the jump shot. Simply put, he’s not a wildly explosive athlete, and he doesn’t get great separation from defenders going forward due to his high handle. In some ways, it would be much of the same in regard to the perimeter-oriented nature of how the Hawks attack teams.
His high feel for the game and terrific passing acumen should make him useful running the show against second units. But that, along with some questions about his jumper, do give evaluators pause when it comes to projecting him as a starting lead guard, the position he played this year at Iowa State. Halliburton has terrific touch, having hit 41.9 percent of his 3-pointers this year. But he has an elongated release that takes time in regard to ball pick-up, and he profiles as a much better shooter off the catch at the next level than he does off the dribble.
With Young around for kick-out passes to open shooters, Halliburton likely would thrive. As long as the jumper translates, Halliburton should be an absolutely terrific, high-level role player in the best possible sense. He fills a lot of holes for this group and would be very high on my board of potential Hawks picks.
Simulation 5
- New York: LaMelo Ball
- Chicago: Anthony Edwards
- Detroit: Tyrese Haliburton
- Phoenix: Obi Toppin
- Golden State: James Wiseman
- Cleveland: Deni Avdija
- Minnesota: Isaac Okoro
- Atlanta: Killian Hayes
Kirschner: This obviously is the nightmare scenario for the Hawks on lottery night with them having only a 2.2 percent chance of falling all the way to eight. But I feel like if Hayes ended up being their pick, it wouldn’t be all that terrible because of what we just talked about with them desperately needing to figure out their backup point guard situation. But for a team that used a top-five pick on a point guard in Young just two drafts ago, would you think it’s wise for the Hawks to use a top-eight pick on another lead guard, or do you think both Haliburton and Hayes can play off the ball?
Vecenie: Similarly to Halibuton, I believe Hayes can play off the ball next to Young, in addition to eating up minutes as a backup lead guard. He has the size at 6-foot-5 and is good enough defensively to deal with handling guys across the spectrum from the 1 through the 3. I’d probably have Haliburton one spot higher on the board than Hayes because I think his shooting ability off the catch is a bit stronger, and it thus makes him a better bet to be able to play with Young, but Hayes’ ability as a live-dribble distributor exceeds Haliburton’s, in my opinion. He would be better for the Hawks in those 15 or so minutes per night that Young is on the bench. Additionally, I’d trust him a bit more than Haliburton to handle some minutes on the ball when Young is on the floor in order to allow Young to get loose as a scorer. His feel for the game is similarly exceptional.
But again, the key with Hayes is evaluating the jump shot. He does have a pretty nice little step-back jumper off the bounce that he can get to, but his overall percentages in the run of play haven’t quite been good enough to this point in his career. This year, he hit 29.4 percent of his 3s. In his first year as a pro last year, he hit 18.2 percent. In his two high-level youth FIBA competitions, he’s hit just 25.5 percent. Evaluators do believe there is some potential as a shooter due to his always-high free throw percentages, but it’s a different beast making them during game situations. In my opinion, a big part of why he struggles there is because he’s not the most explosive athlete and doesn’t have the most shiftiness, thus making him a bit more easily contested as a shooter. If he ends up not being a shooter, there is a world where it’s just a bit too easy for defenders to deal with him.
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It wouldn’t be the world’s most ideal situation for the Hawks, but it would be a fine result.
Kirschner: Before you go, I wanted to ask you about the Hawks’ goals for next season. Pierce has said the Hawks should be a playoff team next season. Whether you believe the Hawks can take that significant of a jump next season is beside the point, but that tells me they’re going to at least try making big moves like they did to acquire Capela. The Hawks already have six players on the roster who are 22 years old or younger. If you were general manager Travis Schlenk, would you be trying to trade out of this draft and acquire someone who could immediately help their rotation?
Vecenie: Yeah, I’m never really a fan of putting unnecessary expectations on any scenario, especially for teams that are still this young. I thought it was ridiculous coming into this season when people thought the Hawks would be anything resembling a playoff team. The key core pieces of this team are still really, really young. It might take into Year 4 of the Young era before things get figured out, and that’s OK. And if Pierce is saying this because he wants to try to save his job in some way, I’m not sure that I think it would make all that big of a difference in my mind if I was Schlenk and company in the front office.
Having said that, do I think they made some interesting moves to potentially push them closer to contention? Yeah, I do. The Capela and Dedmon moves should really help a team that desperately needed a better defensive presence inside. It’s possible they could make that playoff push next year. But I wouldn’t try to rush the process. It takes as long as it takes. The key is not a short-term run here; it’s a sustainable product over the long haul, especially now that the Hawks actually have the toughest thing to acquire, a superstar. I’d want as many cost-controlled, young players as possible for when Young enters his prime in the next few years. That will free the team up to make more moves on the margins to surround him with the talent they need to be competitive.
Now, if a team comes over the top and offers a ton of value for their pick? I absolutely think the Hawks should be willing to entertain that sort of deal. And every deal that Schlenk and company should make should have an eye on the future. The Capela deal is a prime example. He helps them now, but more than that he is signed for three additional years at a very reasonable price.
But I just categorically disagree with any moves that attempt to “win now and only now” when the team’s star player is still just 21 years old.
Kirschner: Thanks for doing this, Sam. This was great and a good look at what the Hawks might do whenever the draft is held.
(Photo of Anthony Edwards: Dale Zanine / USA Today)
